Written by Nasser Kandil,
While Turkey is making a clear progress against Saudi Arabia as two competing countries to be with Iran in any new regional formula, it is not a secret that the points of strength of Turkey come from the positioning in between Washington and Moscow as two sponsors of the new regional system which Moscow’s administration is recognized by America. Turkey seems Russia’s candidate which is accepted by America, versus Saudi Arabia which is backed by Israel after the announced alliance between the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and the Prime Minister of the occupation entity Benjamin Netanyahu and the sponsorship of the US President Donald Trump and his son in –law Jared Kushner through what is called as “the deal of the century” as a solution for the Palestinian cause and the declaration of Arab-Israeli alliance against Iran. It seems that the regression of Saudi Arabia is an interpretation of its failure in promoting the deal of the century and its turning into an actual deal that opens a new path in the regional balances. So it pays the cost of this failure and its failure in the war on Yemen. The repercussions of the case of Gamal Al Khashoggi seem closer to the required context to ensure the Saudi regression as the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in the early nineties was closer to the required scenario to overthrow the Iraqi regime.
The Russian victory in enhancing the position of Turkey instead of Saudi Arabia under US consent is expressed by the deal of the American pastor who was detained in Ankara and who was released yesterday, and is expressed by the understandings on the Turkish-American patrols in Manbej in the north of Syria. The return to the talk about Turkish-American normalization is based on the American coexistence with the Turkish arming with S-400 Russian missiles and on the Turkish economic strategic understandings that are related to the nuclear energy and the oil and gas market. Meantime there were questions about the status of Israel in the new regional system which its rules must be settled in the final stage of negotiations before the emergence of the final draft of settlement about the course of the war on Syria which is in its last quarter as recognized by everyone.
Israel which its bet on “the deal of century” failed despite Washington’s abidance by its obligations to the Saudi –Israeli bilateral to promote the concept of settlement on which the deal is based according to the Israeli vision and Saudi consent, and which is about removing the issues of the future of Jerusalem and the case of immigrants from the negotiation is aware that it will pay with Saudi Arabia the bill of failure which Washington cannot bear its consequences. Israel is the sponsor of the Saudi project in Washington through the bet on what could be done by the Saudi Crown Prince in case he assumes the Saudi, Arab, and Islamic leadership. Therefore it has to bear the consequences of its bets after Bin Salman’s failure in finding the Palestinian partner in the deal of the century, his failure in the war on Yemen, and his most dangerous failure in keeping the status of Pakistan in the American-Israeli alliance. Israel lost the opportunity to reserve its seat for an attainable peace project; therefore, the threat of war is its only alternative solution.
The developments of the Russian-Israeli relationship in the equations and balances of the power in Syria which coincided with Syria’s deployment of S-300 under Russian sponsorship raised major questions about the ability of Israel to reserve its seat by the force of the military sabotage, especially because there is no hope for Israel in any military action against Iran. The balance of deterrence on the Lebanese front is increasingly coherent. Israel tried to absorb the shock by claiming that granting S-300 does not change its ability to move in the Syrian airspace, resorting to the scientific fiction to talk about the capacities of the modern US aircraft F-35 as the available counterpart to S-300. It opens a dangerous race between the capabilities of the Russian and American weapons, the Russian military promised in case the emergence of F-35 to drop it down even if this required the use of S-400 batteries. It is known that the Russian and the American leadership keenness not to involve in such a race because it will distort the reputation of the Russian and American weapons and will lead to a big loss in the secrets of the modern weapons, since the dedication to technological arming is undesirable.
The US statements issued by the US Department about S-300 and its handing over to Syria suggested the Israeli desire to violate the capabilities of the Russian system, since the Russian decision of escalation is dangerous that has severe consequences, while the statements of the Ministry of Defense in the name of the coalition in the war on ISIS were reversed, they stated that deployment of S-300 does not affect the act of the coalition forces in its war on ISIS. It seems that Washington decided to adapt with the change imposed by Russia, it announced yesterday its withdrawal of F-35 aircraft due to a technical failure after the fall of one of the aircraft on a training mission, after the Americans had decided to develop F-35 in a way that it can compete S-300, while the Russians say that one of the planes which Israel has only seven of fell a year ago by S-200 not S-300 and the Israelis claimed its fall after its clash with a flying object.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,