Written by Nasser Kandil,
Those who are concerned in Lebanon and Iraq have been notified that they should have governments by the beginning of March, because the coming is difficult and dangerous, the regional developments will be serious, and that the settlements will be difficult and complicated and where the open war will not be possible The American-Israeli equation stems from two impossibilities; the first impossibility is to coexist with the growth of the resistance axis, its cohesion, and its possessing the reasons of the geographical, military, and arming force, in a way that makes any settlement of the Syrian victory a direct threat that Israel cannot bear its consequences. While the second impossibility is the inability to prevent this dramatic scene through a direct radical confrontation that based on using the military force. This was available in better conditions before the battle of Aleppo, the battle of Ghouta, and the battle of the south of Syria. Between these two impossibilities there is what is called militarily “the mutual rapprochement to the engagement line in the forbidden areas” hoping to play a role of deterring. This means that the bet will on a last step by the American –Israeli alliance without a parallel step by the resistance axis. Thus new rules of engagement will be drawn without engaging into any confrontation.
The moment at which the steps will be opposite will be in March, and the last step on which the semi-final balance will be based will be imposed by the exchange of steps after less than two months. The final deadline for the clarity of the military alternatives which will occur after the American withdrawal from the Syrian-Turkish borders will be in March, because April will be the month of withdrawal. So will Turkey take the risk and occupy the border sites from Washington that put it outside the path of Astana with Russia and Iran and return it to the pre-Aleppo battle era and make it confronting the threat of falling into a major confrontation that it did its best to avoid or will it abide by the advices of the Russian President by returning to Adana Agreement which was arranging the border situation between Syria and Turkey along with the Russian sponsorship this time.
Furthermore, the date of the early Israeli elections which imposed by the failure in the last war of Gaza will be in March, Netanyahu wants it to renew his leadership, and so he puts the attacks against the Syrian territory as a title for achieving this goal, he wants also to make Iran and confronting it a title of his electoral campaign, but he got a response from the General Qassem Soleimani who promised Netanyahu with a forthcoming response that ends his dream of premiership. In March, as published by Kommersant the Russian newspaper and quoted by military sources the S-300 missile network which handed to Syria will be into effect. Israel heard the words of the Syrian diplomat Dr. Bashar Al-Jaafari from the platform of the United Nations saying that Tel Aviv Airport versus Damascus Airport. It is known that Al-Jaafari’s words are serious introduction for the equation which the Chief of Staff of the occupation army said that it is a hypothesis that cannot be ignored; since Syria possesses what can interpret that.
The equations of deterrence are waiting for the new rules of engagement. March is not far and the American bet on a confrontation entitled the financial war and calming down the military fronts which are in favor of its opponents will remain a dream that is not verifiable. The resistance axis and its leaders know their strength and weakness as they know the strength and weakness of their enemy. The Israelis may feel surprised that when the forthcoming confrontations take place America may be preoccupied in the fire that has ignited in Venezuela which could extend to the South of America.
Translated by Lina Shehadeh