نقاط على الحروف What will the US midterm elections say?

Written by Nasser Kandil,

The semi-impossible winning of the Democrats in the Houses of the Senate and the representatives will not change the powers of the President Donald Trump and his pivotal role in drawing the policies and taking decisions, especially because the differences are not essential in the foreign policy and due to the limitedness of what can the Congress in its two houses do in the foreign policies. Furthermore, the semi impossible winning of the Republicans in the Houses of the Senate and the representatives will not change the escalation in the US tense foreign policies due to elements that are not related internally; the confrontation with Russia is governed with inability, the confrontation with Iran is governed with limited options, moreover, the escalation with Syria has become from the past, the deal of the century is disrupted due to the absence of the Palestinian partner ,and the deep relationship with Saudi Arabia and its Crown Prince is chasing the US President after the killing of Jamal Khashoggi and the circumstances of his killing in the light of the dilemma of the war of Yemen which turned into an organized crime.

The expected balance of the results which is in favor of the improvement of the Democrats’ situation and the remarkable participation of voters based on equation that has no electoral promises, which was missed in the campaigns of the rival parties. The battle is revolving around the future of the US presidency after two years, where the Republicans are preparing themselves for a second term for Trump, they ask the voters for a new opportunity for the businessman to achieve his promises instead of returning to the monotony of the officials who were presidents, while the Democrats tell the voters that the prevention of the renewal of Trump’s mandate is required, because the current disaster will be serious if Trump wins a second term.

The magnitude of the participation is due to the real division in the US community outside the political discourse of the two parties regarding what is represented by Trump. Most of the white Americans, the religious extremists, and the fanatical supporters of Israel and the remaining of the neo-conservatives see him as a hero who represents the American dream, while the rest of Latin, Chinese, and Middle Eastern origins see him as danger of ethnical cleaning and as a project of a civil war. In contrast, the intellectual elites and the media means which are committed to an American civil country and the influential centers in the public opinion are divided in favor of the political, military, religious, and ethnic extremism lobbies. The raised issues are just tools of confrontation, including the relationship with the royal family in Saudi Arabia. Trump does not feel embarrassed to say that money is more important than values.

The improvement of the situation of the Democrats which is almost certain apart from its influence on the coming balances in the two houses and the size of the broad electoral participation say that Trump is losing points and that the reason of that loss is the inability to turn the cleansing hostile internal and external discourse into profits in the balances of the extremists. It seems that the objective complications which are related to the ability not the desire prevent that. In other words, if the President Trump wants to win a second term, he has to a wage a winning battle, which means; to expose the international and the regional stability to threats that must be considered or to have compromises, thus to take the Democrats' agenda and to achieve outstanding results in stability internally and externally, but to ensure the flexibility of the base on which Trump depends in the US community and the ruling institutions.

The ethnical, political, and cultural division will be the characteristic which will accompany the US interior in the next two years before the presidential elections. And it will not be easy to run a presidential competition by any candidates, through which America emerges more coherent and powerful.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

 

2018-11-28
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