Written by Nasser Kandil,
Apparently, Israel seems that it was the party that started the escalation in order to impose a fait accompli that reserves a seat for it in all the ongoing negotiations about the future of the region, andin order to link every forthcoming settlement with guarantees not to jeopardize the Israeli interests and its security. But the Americans came as mediators to prevent the escalation and to achieve the common goal which is to link the solutions with negotiation which both the Americans and the Israelis want. The negotiation to distract the rights and to impose the Israeli presence ensuresthe interests of America, especially when they give it a role of sponsoring the negotiation after the declaration of Jerusalem as a capital of Israel. It tells the Arabs through their Lebanese aides who filled the Arab and the Islamic conferences with the talk about the fall of Washington as an honest mediator and as a sponsor of negotiations; that you will be in need of the American sponsorship and the negotiations.
What is going on in Syria as the coincidence of the American and the Israeli escalation confirms that, and opens different issues from that coincided with the Israeli escalation in Lebanon. In both cases Washington as Tel Aviv want to prove their presence, they know the impossibility of imposing a state of chaos in Syria as an alternative choice of the Syrian state, which was presaged by the political plan presented by the US, France, Britain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan to share Syria with Russia and Iran, and to tempt Turkey to play a role in order to demarcate its own canton, supported by the NATOeven if Washington was obliged to be watchful for the sake of the Kurds whom it took as a pretext to protect ISIS and to strike the loyal units to the Syrian state whom the Kurds were dreaming of their intervention in order to protect them in Afrin after Washington has abandoned them, but this intervention became impossible after the participation of the Kurdis in the massacre committed by the Americans against the popular loyal forces.
Washington as Tel Aviv knows that it is impossible to bear the bill of the open confrontation to impose an agenda that contradicts the aspiration of the axis of the resistance, and Russia, and they know that it is impossible to see that they lose the control in favor of the growing forces of the axis of the resistance and the progress of the Syrian project in restoring its geography. They know as well that the date of Raqqa and elsewhere in the eastern of the Euphrates River is so close after Idlib. Neither the American nor the Turkish threats prevented this pathand as the Turks did not dare to enter directly to Idlib, the Americans will not dare to enter Raqqa when it is time.
Washington and Tel Aviv witness the progress of Russia militarily as a sponsor force of the Syrian state on one hand, and as a sponsor force of the political path on the other hand, but this becomes realistic with every military progress achieved by the Syrian country and its allies, they witness also the progress of Russia as a sponsor of the reconstruction process in Syria by neglecting the threats of Washington and the Western capitals by linking funding the reconstruction with their political books of term. If the interest in gas and oil file in Syria is by having control on the Eastern of the Euphrates area which is full of oil wealth, gas, and minerals,then this requires the Israeli interference in Lebanon and that is facilitated by an expert in the Lebanese affairs and a friend of Israel as a former ambassador in Lebanon and Israel David Satterfield, and then to be exploited by the expert in gas and oil affairs and whom is entrusted with the interests of the American companies in this sector as a foreign minister exactly as the Europeans did towards Iran, they participated in oil and gas fields in Lebanon through French and Italian companies with the participation of Russia as sponsor of the alliance which is signing today on investment contracts.
The escalation has many political and security functions, but the preparation for the compromises requires freezing the major economic files until the Americans get their share whether in the reconstruction of Syria or in in the investment of Lebanon and Syria of the oil and gas wealth. The proposed settlement will include freezing what is left of blocs for years especially the southern of which, so Lebanon has to be ready. There are those who say why Lebanon does not impose a similar economic situation even as barter, by the announcement of establishing a water dam on the spring of Wazzani, that is not minded by the US mediation to determine the proportion of water sharing, and thus it achieves another kind of balance of deterrence that allows the escape from the Israeli threats and the bombed American offers?
Translated by Lina Shehadeh,