نقاط على الحروف The Russian- American relationship and Syria: The turn of balances

Written by Nasser Kandil,

In the beginnings and the in the middle of the American war on Syria, the equation of the Russian-American relationship was present in small limits that related to the American seeking to overcome the Russian veto on the projects proposed by Washington and its allies accompanied with Arab majority to cover the military intervention as the Libyan way. At an advanced stage the American pressures have a title; the seeking for a political settlement without the Syrian President that is accepted by Moscow in exchange of a certain limit of gains and guarantees. In the two stages, the American-Russian major problems were outside Syria. The steadfastness of Russia and its support of the Syrian position were a part of the Russian seeking to make a balance that ensures for Moscow a negotiating situation on all the disputes issues. Soon Moscow has become aware of the dangers posed by the American project on Syria and its impact on the future of the stability of Russia whether in the stage of the Ottoman –Muslim Brotherhood title of the war or in the stage of the Wahhabi title.  A separated Russian position was formed to protect Syria and to prevent the success of the American project in it away from the other dispute issues with Washington, till the position towards Syria has become the most important title in the Russian positions during the collision with Washington.

From the perspective of America the bet remained on exerting pressure on Russia by igniting painful files from Ukraine to the war of prices in the oil and gas markets in order to impose Russian concessions that facilitate the progress of American project in Syria, starting from the American awareness of the position of Syria in the US interests, whether in respect of the besiege of Iran and the security of Israel or in respect of what is related to the future of the energy market, its resources, and pipelines. But in the context of the confrontation and the Russian growing presence in Syria, as well as the crystallization of the balances of powers which surround the nuclear file of Iran which prevent achieving American achievements the Americans moved from the seeking to employ the other files in the American-Russian relationship in order to improve their situation in Syria to the separation among the files and the fear from the growing quest of Moscowfor a deal at the international level that puts Moscow and Washington as an equal –to-peer in the report of the major files of the world.

As the Syrian file has been changed from being a source of pressure to Russia in order to adjust the balances with America to a source of Russian power in all the files, the Syrian file has been changed from being the forefront of all the files and wars according to America to the prevention of Moscow from any achievement,and the seeking to separate the files in order to avoid a comprehensive deal that makes Moscow a peer to Washington in the world. Therefore, the equation of the  American-Russian relationships and its relation to the war on Syria has been changed, its balances have become upside-down, so Syria turned from being a source of American power into a factor of weakness and from a source of Russian weakness into a factor of power, and it has been changed from the American seeking to separate it from all the other files to the seeking to link it with other files and then to separate it, while the Russians moved reversely from the seeking to link to the seeking to separate temporarily and then the seeking to link.

Now the Russian -American relationships seem to be in a foggy state where the Americans try in a way that is accepted by the Russians to separate the Syrian file from all the other files.Washington accepts big Russian gains in Syria and semi-open authorization to manage the settlement in its conditions after the only alternative became Russian –Iranian –Syrian victory in which the resistance participates. Maybe Russia will not object this, starting from turning it into an accumulative balance in a conflict which it considers open with Washington till the availability of comprehensive balance that allows achieving the desired at the international level and turns the Syrian example into an example to be followed in the coming settlements in many open files.

Translated by Lina Shehadeh,

2017-08-08
عدد القراءت (455)